Deep analysis of tungsten industry: from the teeth of industry to the backbone of high-end manufacturing
Tungsten: steel gray or silver white, high hardness, strong ductility, melting point up to 3410 ℃, free from air erosion at room temperature, good conductivity and thermal conductivity, usually used as steel, alloy, lighting or chemical production materials.
The upstream of tungsten industry is dominated by exploration and mining of wolframite. From the perspective of value chain, China's tungsten industry shows characteristics: the profit level of upstream wolframite mining and mining and downstream high-end cemented carbide (especially high-precision and high-performance cutting tools) is high, while that of smelting, pulverizing, medium and low-grade cemented carbide, tungsten steel and tungsten materials is low.
The selling price of the products in the middle and lower reaches of tungsten is mainly determined by converting the metal volume according to the market price of tungsten concentrate in the same period, plus the processing fee of different grades. The industry processing fee has been in a stable level for a long time, and the long-term single purchase price of large enterprises has gradually increased its influence on the market.
As the tungsten industry chain extends vertically downward with fewer branches and high vertical correlation, it can be seen from the price difference of each link that the price of follow-up products basically changes in the same direction as that of tungsten concentrate.
At present, the tungsten price falls below the cost line, and the industry profits are severely squeezed.
From the perspective of ten-year price review, in the absence of technological breakthrough and relatively stable demand, tungsten price is mainly affected by supply side and export. In 2013, the state collected and stored tungsten concentrate and Minmetals and nonferrous metals purchased tungsten powder in a large amount, and the short-term supply of the market pushed the price up to a high of 144000 yuan / ton; in 2014-2015, due to the cancellation of export quotas and tariffs and other factors, the price of tungsten fell to near the cost line; in 2016-2017, after the industry's first reduction in production and price guarantee, the state's fourth collection and storage, and strict environmental supervision, the price of tungsten returned 10 More than 10000 yuan / ton.
In 2019, the industry's supply and demand imbalance tungsten price fell below the cost line again: due to the relatively high tungsten price in 18 years, the industry's manufacturers are highly motivated to start work, plus most of the apt at the end of the year Smelting resumed production, leading to a large release of production capacity this year; while the back-end demand continued to be weak due to the sluggish domestic economy and the decline of terminal consumption capacity; the export growth slowed down under the influence of Sino US trade friction, resulting in 2019 due to multiple factors China's tungsten market was in a state of significant oversupply in, prices continued to fall, smelters were under great pressure to hang back, the industry's capital chain was tight, and tungsten enterprises were struggling to survive.
We calculate the cost and profit of tungsten industry chain:
The cost of tungsten concentrate falls below the industry average cost line: due to different resource grade and the nature of enterprises, the cost of tungsten mine in China varies greatly. On average, the total cost of mature tungsten mine in production is about 85000 yuan / standard ton; due to the impact of amortization depreciation and grade decline, the total cost of new mine can reach more than 130000 yuan / standard ton. At the same time, with the increase of labor cost, the improvement of environmental protection requirements and the decline of resource grade in recent years, tungsten ore cost is on the rise. At present, the price of tungsten concentrate is 74000 yuan / standard ton, which has fallen below the industry average cost line.
