Global molybdenum consumption
China's crude steel production climbed to 49% in the decade from 2007 to 2017. With China's crude steel production growth and structural optimization, China's molybdenum consumption growth is expected to continue to be higher than the global consumption growth rate. China's crude steel production accounted for 36% of the world in 2007, and the proportion has risen to 49% in 2017 10 years later. With the continuous progress of China's industrialization and the global evolution of the steel industry pattern, China's crude steel production share in the world is bound to continue to climb.
The national pipe network company will soon be set up, which is expected to accelerate the investment and construction of the national oil and gas pipe network and stimulate the demand of molybdenum containing alloy steel pipes. According to the "medium and long term oil and gas pipeline network plan" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Bureau, the mileage of natural gas pipeline in China will reach 104000 kilometers and 163000 kilometers respectively by 2020 and 2025, corresponding to 28000 kilometers of incremental mileage in 2019-2020 and 59000 kilometers in 2021-2025, while the total mileage of long-term natural gas pipeline network in China will be about 76000 kilometers by the end of 2018. According to the cost of natural gas pipe network construction, the investment of new mileage per kilometer is more than 10 million yuan per kilometer, then the total investment of 28000 kilometers of new mileage in 2019-2020 will reach 300 billion yuan, and the cost of general pipeline pipe is about 40% to 55%, which will bring the market space of pipeline pipe and pipe to 1200-165 billion yuan. And according to 2021-2025 new mileage of 59000 kilometers, will bring pipeline pipe market space of 2400-33 billion yuan. Generally, the long-distance pipeline of natural gas is made of X70、X80 and other molybdenum-containing alloy steel pipes
The growth rate of overseas molybdenum consumption has been bright in recent years. According to the International Molybdenum Industry Association (IMOA), the average annual compound growth rate of molybdenum consumption in the United States in 2016-2018 was 7.3%, compared with 8.4% in Japan, all of which exceeded the compound growth rate of global molybdenum consumption in the same period (the global growth rate was 6.6%). The United States and Japan have shown outstanding performance in recent years, but also can not be separated from the downstream consumption of the largest proportion of molybdenum consumption in the steel industry, the United States and Japan in 2016-2018 stainless steel crude steel production also steadily increased, the average annual compound growth rate of 6.2% and 2.4%. Global molybdenum consumption is expected to grow at an average annual rate of about 4% over the next three years. As the continuous upgrading of China's iron and steel consumption and structural optimization will actively stimulate molybdenum consumption, while the return of major overseas developed countries such as the United States iron and steel industry, and the sustained recovery of Japanese molybdenum consumption, we judge that the average annual recombination rate of molybdenum consumption in China, the United States and Japan in 2019-2021 is 6%,4.5% and 3%, respectively, while the global molybdenum consumption growth rate will remain around 4%.
