Tungsten
Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea are the four destinations of our countryundefineds export tungsten products. In 2018, the amount of tungsten (excluding hard metals) exported to Japan, South Korea and Europe increased by 19.25%, 8.91% and 4.20% on a year-on-year basis. The amount of tungsten exports to the United States fell by 11.29% on a year-on-year basis. The amount of tungsten exported to the above four countries and regions accounted for 89.17 per cent of the total exports of tungsten, a decrease of 1.59 percentage points over 2017. Among them, the amount of tungsten in the export to Japan, South Korea, Europe and the United States accounted for 25.29%, 18.76%, 31.16% and 13.96% of the total exports of tungsten, respectively. In the same period, the proportion of Japan and Korea increased by 2.38 and 4.24 percentage points, respectively, and the proportion of Europe and the United States decreased by 1.15 and 2.96%, respectively. In 2018, Chinaundefineds import of tungsten (excluding hard alloy, tungsten-containing concentrate, and folding metal) is 4573 tons, with a year-on-year growth of 57.28%, which has changed the trend of continuous 4-year decline. The import amount of US $1.31 billion, an increase of 43.35 per cent on a year-on-year basis. Among them,3429 tons of imported tungsten concentrate increased by 68.76% on a year-on-year basis, accounting for 74.98% of the total import volume, and the import amount was US $454.9 million, with a year-on-year increase of 65.97%. The import of tungsten concentrate in China is mainly from Korea, Vietnam, Rwanda and Russia. In 2018, the import of tungsten concentrate from the four countries is 2916 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 160.59%, accounting for 85.04% of the total import volume, accounting for 29.97 percentage points over the year 2017. The distribution of tungsten concentrate from North Korea has changed in the first place and the distribution of the tungsten concentrate in the importing country. Since 2017, the market demand of the tungsten has been continuously recovered, the price is steady, the fluctuation range is narrow, and the price of the upstream and downstream tungsten market is reasonable. The impact of China-US trade friction is expected, the international market demand is slowed, and the production of APT enterprises in the domestic part has been affected. Although the price of the tungsten market has dropped from the beginning of July,2018, the price level of the tungsten market in the whole year still has a relatively large increase in the year-on-year, and the overall stability is stable. In 2018, the average annual average price of the tungsten concentrate in China is 10.60 million yuan/ ton, up 17.65% on a year-on-year basis, and the increase is 13.5 percentage points from 2017; the average price of the domestic APT is 16.78 million yuan/ ton, up 20.89% on a year-on-year basis, and the increase is 9.41 percentage points from 2017. In 2018, the UKundefineds APT offers $270/ ton-354/ ton, with an upward trend in the first half of the year and a steady decline in the second half of the year, with an average annual rate of $313/ ton, up 28.99% on a year-on-year basis. In 2018, the tungsten industry is in a steady state of operation. In the second half of 2018, the export of tungsten products is down, the price is down, the economic benefit of the tungsten industry is down, some of the tungsten enterprises are still losing, and the differentiation of the profitability of the enterprise is intensified, The economic situation in the industry needs to be further consolidated on a good basis. According to the China Tungsten Association, the operating income of the 125 major tungsten enterprises in 2018 increased by 18.04% on a year-on-year basis, with an increase of 2.24 percentage points from the first to the third quarter of 2018; the main business income increased by 18.51% on a year-on-year basis, and the increase was 2.73 percentage points in the first to third quarters of 2018; the achievement of the profit and tax increased by 23.18% on a year-on-year basis. The growth rate slowed by 13.78 percentage points in the first to third quarter of 2018; the total profit increased by 29.57% on a year-on-year basis, with an increase of 12.1 percentage points in the first to third quarter of 2018. In the sub-industry, the profit growth of the tungsten ore, the hard alloy and the tungsten iron is greatly increased, and the profit of the tungsten smelting and the tungsten material processing is reduced. In 2019, the situation of the steady and tight supply of the tungsten market will continue. the price of the tungsten concentrate is reduced by the resource grade, the cost is increased, the safety and environmental protection pressure is increased, and the like, the falling space is small, the market uncertainty is still more, the downstream demand growth is slow, the market demand pressure is still large, and the APT, the powder and other tungsten intermediate products and the hard alloy, The price of the terminal products such as tungsten materials is pressure-bearing, the possibility of a large increase is not large, and the price of the tungsten market is expected to continue to run in a relatively reasonable interval. From the supply end, first, the domestic tungsten raw material supply is steady and tight. The influence of the factors such as policy control, resource endowment, selection cost and safety and environmental protection result in the production and comprehensive utilization of the main production tungsten ore and the shrinkage of the production and output of the mineral products, which will reverse the increase of the output of the main production tungsten ore caused by the technical transformation of the individual regions; The secondary resource regeneration has a steady increase, but the effect on the supply of the market is limited. Second, the output of tungsten concentrate abroad is stable. in that context of the current global economy and the price of the tungsten market, the foreign cut-off mine is still difficult to recover (e. g., Canadaundefineds Cantung Mine tungsten mine, for example, has been shut down from December 2015 to the present, only half of the production capacity after the production of Hermitidon tungsten ore in September 2015, and has been discontinued in October 2018), The construction of the new project is slow (e.g., the Mactaung Mine tungsten mine in Canada has not been developed, and the Almenty company includes 5 tungsten ores under construction and production, and there are only 3 mines in production; in the case of the South Korean Shangdong tungsten mine, the production of Niu Pao-W concentrate in Vietnam remains stable; The production of tungsten concentrate in Bolivia and Austria is not large and is stable; the production of tungsten concentrate in Mongolia is greatly reduced; and the production of tungsten concentrate in Korea is large; and the yield of tungsten concentrate such as Rwanda, Australia and Brazil is low. Third, foreign reserves and inventory are still at a low level. The U. S. tungsten strategic reserve has fallen, the Russian reserve is very low, and it is affected by the market uncertainty factors such as the trade friction between China and the United States, and the foreign tungsten enterprises are careful to purchase and control the inventory. From the demand side, in 2019, the demand for tungsten will continue to maintain a low-speed growth. First, the overall economy of our country is stable, the quality benefit is steadily improved, the index of the manufacturing purchasing manager continues to keep in the boom section, especially the high-tech manufacturing industry and the equipment manufacturing industry, the infrastructure construction and the growth of the civil investment, will continue to pull the tungsten market demand. Second, with the transfer of trade friction between China and the United States, the confidence of the international tungsten market is restored, although the demand for tungsten in foreign countries has been weakened, it is expected to continue to maintain a steady state. In 2018, the total GDP of the United States is expected to exceed $20 trillion for the first time, the fastest in the last four years, and the unemployment rate is new low in 2000. The consumer confidence index was the highest in 2000, with the number of rigs and manufacturing orders growing. In the fiscal year of the United States, the revenue of the fiscal year 2017/2018 reached US $23.68 billion, a year-on-year growth of 15.04%, net profit of US $2.00 billion, a year-on-year growth of 307.38%. The EUundefineds 28-country economy has slowed, but overall operation is robust, consumer and market confidence is still at a high level, and GDP growth is expected to remain at around 2.1 per cent in 2018. The year-on-year order, revenue, and adjusted operating profit and cash flow of the Mountain Twik in 2018 reached a record high, with the year-on-year increase of 9.0% over the same period of year. Of these, mining and rock drilling technology, as well as the material technology sector orders, are double-digit growth, with a strong growth in most of the regions, although growth in the field of machining solutions has slowed, but there is also a single-digit growth that is mainly affected by the reduction in the number of Asian orders and the slowdown in the automobile industry. For the whole year, the operating income is 1000.72 billion, the year-on-year growth of 11.0%, the operating profit (adjusted) of 186.25 billion Swedish kroner, the year-on-year increase of 27.0%. The production of hard alloy in Japan is growing, and the demand is steadily increasing. But it is also to be seen that the tungsten market still faces many challenges and risks. First, there are new changes in the world economy, new variables, more uncertain factors, insufficient growth, commodity price volatility, and some international institutions cut down the worldundefineds economic growth expectations for the next two years. Although the trade friction between China and the United States has changed, the indirect effect on the tungsten industry is not small. Second, the operation risk of the enterprise is of great concern. First, the implementation of such policies as negative list of market access, environmental protection tax and resource tax, as well as the establishment of the red line of ecological protection, the strengthening of the supervision of safety production and environmental protection, especially the prevention and control of tungsten smelting and the reduction of tungsten slag, and the disposal of resource and innocent utilization, are facing an unprecedented pressure. Secondly, it is of great concern to cancel the registration of the scale change of the mining right, and the expansion energy of the mine, in particular the small mining point of less than 30,000 tons, is of great concern. Third, the "small-scale amplification" of market access for tungsten mining will be beneficial to the replacement of old mine resources, promote the large-scale, intensive exploitation and protection of the ecological environment of the development of the tungsten resources, but also bring a certain pressure to the control of the total amount of the tungsten mine. Fourth, the market competition is intensified. The tungsten industry in China is in the critical period of industrial transformation and high-quality development. The concentration of the tungsten industry is not high, the low-end production capacity of the medium and low end is still surplus, the structural contradiction of the industry is still outstanding, the homogenization competition of the middle and low-end products will be further increased, and the profitability of the enterprise will be further differentiated.
